Global Coach and Bus Growth Outlook, 2022

Global Coach and Bus Growth Outlook, 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic continued to have a global impact in 2021, with transit and bus operators facing financial constraints as daily commuting declined and people shifted to personalized transport to avoid infections. However, with vaccination drives underway, ridership is likely to increase in 2022. India and Latin America are candidates for strong growth in 2022, although volumes may be lower than 2019 levels. In developing countries, most of the population working in the informal sector is highly dependent on public transport for daily commute. They will drive the growth of the transit bus segment.

The size of the global bus market in 2021 was approximately 167,218 units. It is estimated to decline to about 165,819 units in 2022, shrinking at a negative year-over-year rate of 0.8%. This decline will predominantly be due to China, where there is a shift in passenger preference from buses to high-speed rail, aviation, and private passenger vehicles, along with a rise in shared mobility, including two-wheeler and carsharing.

Zero-emission powertrains in transit buses have gained momentum across Europe, North America, India, and Latin America. The EU Clean Vehicle Directive for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption. In Latin America, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Ecuador, and Panama are developing an electromobility strategy to promote zero-emission buses in public transportation. Furthermore, the ZEBRA project will drive the adoption of electric powertrain across various municipalities. In India, FAME II is driving alternate powertrain adoption in intracity and intercity routes across the country and various State Transport Units (STUs). In North America, the Low or No Emission Program, Clean Transit, and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) will increase the funding for zero-emission buses. Newer business models in the electric bus market aim to reduce the initial cost gap between electric and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) buses. The separation of ownership and operation of electric buses, battery leasing, and maintenance will drive the adoption of electric buses.

Geopolitical crises along with high inflation will encourage most central banks to raise interest rates, derailing the recovery. In H1 2022, a steep rise in fuel prices, weaker external trade, and supply-chain difficulties arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict will restrain growth. The slowdown in China, impacting foreign trade and financial markets, will also partially weigh on growth. Traditional OEMs in various regions are expanding their product portfolios to include battery-electric and fuel-cell buses in the transit segment. In the bus market, there are strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new participants striving to enter the market. A relatively lower total cost of ownership of electric buses compared to diesel buses and the push for developing charging infrastructure will drive the adoption of electric buses across different regions.