Global Bus Growth Opportunities, 2024

Global Bus Growth Opportunities, 2024

Strong Growth for Zero-emission Transit Buses in Europe, North America, and India

The global bus industry is estimated to reach 2,34,000 units in 2024. The strong growth will be due to the bounce back in volumes in India and a healthy increase in Europe. Transit bus demand grew due to aging fleet replacement and government subsidies for alternate powertrains, while coach bus growth was driven by the thriving tourism industry and the return to normalcy after the COVID-19 pandemic.

On the electric bus (eBus) front, emission regulations, battery price drops, the emergence of low-emission zones, purchase subsidies, and tax exemptions will drive growth, while the growing adoption of electric transit buses has opened opportunities for the global sourcing and supply of alternate powertrain buses. The industry is fertile ground for strong collaboration among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new participants trying to enter.

Regulations such as the EU Clean Vehicle directive will boost eBus adoption, particularly as part of national public transport procurement. BEV buses will experience strong growth from 2024 to 2027, and the entry of major utility and energy companies into the electric charging infrastructure space will boost the growth of fueling infrastructure for EVs.

For bus ADAS, General Vehicle Safety Regulation 2019/2144 will be mandatory for all vehicles sold from July 2024. Required ADAS features for vehicles include pedestrian and cyclist detection, blind spot monitoring, front collision warning, autonomous emergency braking, intelligent speed assistance, lane departure warning, and driver drowsiness and distraction warning.

In China, BEV buses will see moderate growth in the medium term due to the elimination of subsidies and purchase incentives. The government policy for the integration of rural passenger, freight, and postal services will alleviate public transportation's overcapacity and establish a new rural transportation service model that emphasizes convenience and efficiency. The government has announced 15 pilot cities to explore the construction of a green and low-carbon transportation system. Chinese coach buses registered strong growth as 2023 was the 1st year when the country’s pandemic control policies were completely relaxed. In addition, Chinese eBus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, driven by the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants and growing exports.

In India, the $7 billion PM-eBus Sewa scheme will augment eBuses in 169 cities and introduce green urban mobility initiatives in 181 cities. This includes the development and upgradation of depot infrastructure and the creation of behind-the-meter power infrastructure (substation) for eBuses.

In Latin America, the Zero-emission Bus Rapid-deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) program will drive eBus adoption, with initial kickstarts in Medellin, São Paulo, and Mexico City. Major Latin American countries are developing electromobility strategies to promote zero-emission buses in public transportation, while Chinese OEMs have established regional production bases to tap into the region. ZEV bus tenders focus on performance-based contracts where manufacturers meet requirements for strong post-sales support, including preventive maintenance and guaranteed spare parts.

The study also covers the following topics:
• Notable regulations and mandates
• Top industry trends and impact by region
• In-depth coverage of North America, Europe, Latin America, China, and India
• Powertrain technology share by region, including electric and natural gas vehicles
• Different OEMs' powertrain technology product portfolios
• Growth opportunities