Full-Service Airline Sustainable Aviation Fuel Growth Opportunities

Full-Service Airline Sustainable Aviation Fuel Growth Opportunities

This report explores the market sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) for full-service Tier I–III air carriers through 2032 considering historical airline purchase agreements from 2013 to 2023, production in metric tons and prices, and investments in new production facilities.

SAF for commercial aviation is an attractive ancillary revenue channel for traditional oil companies that are seeing competition from new entrants. SAF in commercial aviation was a nascent market in 2022 with limited production and airline participation. Only regions that are home to airlines that have agreements for purchasing (or have already purchased) SAF and with production facilities are considered in this study.

Market sizing and forecasting is based on the cost per metric ton of SAF purchased by full-service carriers. The United States, United Kingdom, and Norway are leading the way in developing tax incentives, providing cheaper loans and grants for research and innovation, setting mandates

for net-zero aviation operations, and establishing targets for SAF use. Manufacturers will have to develop methods to scale production in response to demand and maintain competitive prices at the same time.