US Wood & Competitive Decking

US Wood & Competitive Decking

Demand for decking in the US is forecast to remain stagnate at 3.8 billion lineal feet in 2027 (valued at $12.7 billion), restrained by slow growth in residential improvement and repair activity. Growth will also be limited by the large number of residential decks that were installed in 2020 and 2021, when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic caused home renovations to soar – these decks are not likely to be replaced in the near future. Market value will also be negatively impacted by a significant moderation in wood prices from elevated levels during the pandemic.

Although the overall outlook is weak, growth will occur in some segments such as:

• the commercial market, thanks to a strong rebound in the construction of hotels and resorts, where decks are frequently installed in outdoor gathering areas
• the nonbuilding market, due to design trends that call for more gathering and recreation areas in public parks and other facilities
• nonwood decking materials, which offer greater durability and require less maintenance than wood

Popularity of Wood-Plastic Composite Decking Continues to Rise

Wood-plastic composite is expected to capture a larger share of the US decking market through 2027, primarily at the expense of pressure-treated wood. Wood-plastic composite is gaining popularity because it is durable and maintains a wood-like appearance. Advances in product aesthetics and the use of capstock-coated decking – which provides enhanced protection against mold growth and premature degradation – will further boost wood-plastic composite decking demand.

Wood Decking Prices will Moderate from Record Highs

2020 and 2021 saw record high prices for lumber, especially pressure-treated varieties; the surge was caused by pandemic-induced shutdowns leading to severe shortages among domestic suppliers. Additionally, shortages in the Canadian market – which is a major source of US supply – exacerbated price pressures, precipitating significant increases and volatility. This resulted in a highly inflated value for the US decking market. For example, demand volume grew 12% from 2019 to 2021, while demand value increased by over 105%. This was primarily due to a 150% increase in the price of lumber during that period.

Prices in 2022 remained elevated, but began to stabilize as supply chains normalized and construction activity began to dampen. In 2023, prices for wood decking moderated significantly, and will remain below 2022 levels for the rest of the forecast period.

Study Description

This Freedonia industry study analyzes the $13.9 billion US decking industry. It presents historical demand data (2012, 2017, and 2022), forecasts (2027 and 2032), and annual historical and forecast data from 2019 to 2026 by market (residential, commercial, nonbuilding), by material (wood, wood-plastic composite, plastic, other) and product (decking board, railing accessories). The study also evaluates company market share and competitive analysis on such industry players as AZEK Company, Cornerstone Building Brands, CRH (Oldcastle AG), Fortune Brands (Fiberon), Owens Corning (WearDeck), TAMKO Building Products (Envision Outdoor Living), Trex, UFP Industries, VEKA, West Fraser, and Weyerhaeuser.