US Siding

US Siding

Siding demand in the US is projected to increase at an annual average rate of less than 1.0% to 106.8 million squares in 2027. Growth in squares will be restrained primarily by a decline in conventional housing starts that began in 2022 – following significant increases in 2020 and 2021 – and is expected to continue through 2024, with sluggish gains thereafter. However, demand will be lifted by the commercial market returning to growth following pandemic-related declines, boosted by the construction of new institutional, office, and industrial buildings.

Demand value is expected to increase 1.4% annually to $16.0 billion in 2027, a significant deceleration from the 2017-2022 period. Prices for most siding products will moderate in the wake of the spikes that were precipitated by supply chain issues and high raw material costs.

Vinyl to Gain Market Share After a Decade of Declines

Vinyl siding is forecast to gain market share through 2027 at the expense of fiber cement and engineered wood, due to advancements made by suppliers to the performance and appearance of vinyl siding. While fiber cement was the second most used siding material in 2022, its penetration rate will moderate through the forecast period due to the product’s growing maturity and the improving quality of competitive materials like vinyl siding. Vinyl will also take market share from engineered wood due to improvements in the material’s aesthetics, which allow vinyl to mimic the appearance of natural wood, along with the material’s greater durability and fewer maintenance requirements.

Rebound of Commercial Market to Benefit Brick, Metal, & Fiber Cement

The commercial market is forecast to rebound following pandemic-related declines in commercial building construction in the latter part of the historical period. Among the siding materials used for commercial buildings, brick, metal, and fiber cement will all see notable growth:

• Fiber cement is expected to grow at the fastest rate of any commercial siding material (albeit from a small base), supported by its fire resistance, its lower cost compared to brick or concrete, and its array of finishes and styles that can provide a variety of aesthetics to a light commercial structure.
• Metal and brick siding will account for sizable absolute gains, with metal sales being supported by the increasing construction of factories and associated offices and warehouses, which often use metal siding. Brick siding’s share of absolute gains will be supported by its low maintenance and durability.

This report examines the size and growth of the US siding industry in unit and value terms, and analyzes key trends by product (vinyl, fiber cement, stucco, engineered wood, brick, concrete and metal panels), market (new and residential renovation and new and commercial renovation, and region. Historical data are provided for 2012, 2017, and 2022 with forecasts for 2027 and 2032. Also provided is an analysis of key industry players and their market shares.