Global Access Controls & Locks

Global Access Controls & Locks

Global demand for access controls and locks is projected to increase 2.3% per year to $71.2 billion in 2027. Growth will be driven by rising building construction spending, particularly in industrializing countries, as most buildings require at least basic locks. Increased penetration of electromechanical locks will also boost the market size in dollar terms. Sales value growth will slow compared to the 2017-2022 period, when economic disruption associated with the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to elevated rates of price increases.

Electromechanical Locks & Access Controls to Grow in Tandem

Sales growth for electromechanical locks will be linked to trends in access controls, as these products are – at least to some extent – complementary. However, while many access control systems contain fully integrated electronic locks, electromechanical locks can also be sold as standalone products. Moreover, those kinds of installations can serve as a stepping stone to the eventual implementation of an access control systems. This will be a particularly important driver of growth in high-income nations where markets for conventional locks are mature.

Card-Based Access Controls to Remain Most Popular Option

Card-based access control systems are the most widely used worldwide, and therefore make up the largest share of sales in this segment. The popularity of these systems is attributable to both their cost-competitiveness and their usability for managing access. Key benefits of card-based systems are their ability to flexibly manage access – including setting temporary access periods or dealing with areas with multiple layers of access security – and the possibility to easily integrate these systems with smartphone apps.

Biometric access control systems are expected to gain market share because they offer all the benefits of card-based systems at a higher level of security. However, high costs will continue to limit the use of biometric systems to areas where security carries a particularly strong premium. Keypad and combination-based access control systems will continue to lose market share going forward, as managing these systems carries considerable logistical drawbacks.

Lock Prices Likely to Remain Volatile

Prices for locks increased considerably during the COVID-19 pandemic since their manner of construction makes them sensitive to changes in materials and energy costs. Surging metal costs in 2021 and 2022 challenged suppliers’ bottom lines and led to multiple rounds of price hikes.

By the end of 2022, prices of key raw materials – like steel – had fallen significantly from their peaks and appeared to have settled within range of pre-pandemic norms. As a result, it is likely that recent price increases – some of which were implemented as temporary surcharges – will be rolled back to an extent, resulting in a shrinking market value in 2023. However, this segment remains sensitive to developments in energy and materials markets.

This Freedonia industry study analyzes the $63.6 billion global access control and lock industry. It presents historical demand data (2012, 2017, and 2022) and forecasts (2027 and 2032) by product (door locks, padlocks and other locks, card-based access controls, biometric access controls, keypad/combination access controls) and region (North America, Central and South America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia/Pacific, Africa/Mideast). The study discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study also evaluates competitive analysis on industry competitors including Allegion, ASSA ABLOY, and, Dormakab.