In Thailand, seasonal rainfall occurs in the form of the southwest monsoon, which usually begins its heaviest rainfall pattern in June and continues through September. The germination and growth of Thai rice is largely dependent on these seasonal rains. Seasonal rains favor early planting and enhance rice yields.
In 2022, Thailand exported 7.69 million tons of rice, exceeding the Ministry of Commerce's target of 7.5 million tons. Exports rose 25.77 percent from 6.12 million tons in 2021, while the value in Thai baht terms increased 28.48 percent to 138.45 billion baht ($4.02 billion). 2022 saw Thailand become the world's second-largest rice exporter after India, which exported 21.9 million tons. Iraq is the largest importer of Thai rice, buying 1.6 million tons last year, up 458 percent from a year earlier. South Africa came in second, importing 775,000 tons (down 2.26 percent), followed by China at 750,000 tons (up 18.8 percent), the United States at 650,000 tons (up 13.2 percent) and Benin at 321,000 tons (down 15.3 percent). According to CRI's analysis, in 2022, Thailand's total rice production of nearly 18.86 million tons meets demand for domestic consumption, processing, use in poultry and livestock feed, and export.
In terms of price, the average price of Thai rice exports increased by 2.16 percent year-on-year to $521.88 per ton in 2022. The price of broken 5% white rice remained high on the world market, rising to US$523 per ton on January 18 from US$465 per ton in mid-December.
The baht weakens again in 2023. The outlook for the Thai baht is critical for the country's rice exports this year. If the baht continues to weaken, Thai rice exports will be competitive in the world market.
A weaker baht, rising domestic consumption stocks in India and Vietnam, and growing demand from the Middle East are key factors helping to drive Thai rice exports. CRI expects the exports volume of Thailand’s rice to reach 9.01 million tons in 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6 percent over the 2023-2032 period.
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