Research Report on China's Lead Ore Import 2023-2032
The main use of lead is in the manufacture of lead-acid batteries, and as the global automotive industry grows, global consumption of lead is increasing year by year. According to CRI analysis, by the end of 2022, there will be more than 1.5 billion vehicles worldwide. And the service life of lead-acid batteries is generally not more than 3 years, so the world needs to replace a large number of lead-acid batteries every year. China is the world's major producer and exporter of lead-acid batteries, and because China's local lead ore reserves are insufficient, China has to import a large amount of lead ore every year.
In 2021, China imported 1.193 million tons of lead ore and its concentrates (referred to as lead ore, hereinafter), down 8.9% year-on-year, and the import value was US$1.85 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of 2022, China imported 749,000 tons of lead ore, down 13.4% year-on-year, and the import value was US$1.10 billion, down 17.0% year-on-year. The main reason for the decline in China's lead ore imports in 2021-2022 is the decline in demand for lead ore in China due to lower plant starts as a result of COVID-19. Demand for lead ore in the Chinese market is expected to recover gradually in 2023-2032 as the adverse effects of COVID-19 on the Chinese economy fade away.
In the first three quarters of 2018-2022, the average price of China's lead ore imports generally shows a trend of increasing before decreasing. According to CRI analysis, in 2018-2020, the average price of China's lead ore imports fluctuates slightly but is generally stable at around US$1300 per ton, and in 2021, the average price of China's lead ore imports rises to US$1551.8 per ton, up 19.0% y-o-y. In the first three quarters of 2022, the average price of China's lead ore imports falls to US$1473.5 per ton, down 4.1% year-on-year.
In 2021, China imported lead ore from a total of 39 countries and regions. CRI analysis shows that China's major sources of lead ore imports by import volume are the Russian Federation, the United States, Turkey, Peru and Australia. Among them, the Russian Federation is China's largest source of lead ore imports, with China importing 266,000 tons of lead ore from the Russian Federation in 2021, accounting for 22.3% of the total import volume and the import value of US$440 million, accounting for 23.5% of the total import value. In 2021, the U.S. overtook Peru as China's second largest source of lead ore imports, with the import volume reaching 189,000 tons, up 37.1% year-on-year.
CRI expects that China will still need to import large amounts of lead ore each year from 2023-2032.
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