Smart Metering in Europe 18th Edition

Smart Metering in Europe 18th Edition

Smart Metering in Europe is the eighteenth consecutive report from Berg Insight analysing the latest developments for smart metering (electricity and gas) in Europe. This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides you with 280 pages of unique business intelligence, including 5-year industry forecasts, expert commentary and real-life case studies on which to base your business decisions.

Smart Metering in Europe 18th Edition

More than 56 percent of the electricity customers in EU27+3 had a smart meter at the end of 2022 – a figure that is forecasted to increase to as much as 78 percent in 2028. In terms of shipments, smart meters accounted for around 80 percent of total EU27+3 electricity meter shipments in 2022. Italy, which is currently in the midst of its second-generation rollout, was the largest market in terms of shipments with around 2.6 million units installed during the year. The United Kingdom was the second largest market by volume with yearly shipments of more than 2.5 million units, a number that should have been higher if the British utilities met their installation targets for the year. The third largest market was Sweden, which is in the midst of its second-generation deployment, with yearly shipments of around 1.4–1.5 million units. Poland and France also made their way in the top five in terms of shipment volumes. Other markets with large installation volumes during the year included Austria and Belgium. The smart metering market in Europe remains promising and is set for robust growth in the coming years with a total of close to 110 million smart electricity meters forecasted to be deployed across the region during 2023–2028.

In addition to major first-generation deployments in countries such as the UK, France, Austria, Belgium and Portugal, second-generation rollouts in countries such as Italy and Sweden will contribute with substantial shipment volumes up until the end of 2024. Poland, which is currently ramping up smart meter installations will meanwhile account for a substantial and increasing share of smart meter shipments throughout the entire forecast period. From 2025 and forward, the ramp-up of second-generation installations in markets such as Spain as well as first-generation deployments in Germany and Greece are also expected to be important contributors to yearly shipment volumes. In total, replacements of first-generation smart meters are expected to be in the range of 25–40 percent of total smart meter shipments in Europe throughout the next five years, or 4–8 million units annually.

While rollouts in many countries in Western Europe and the Nordics are now either well-advanced or largely completed, the focus is increasingly shifting to Central, East and Southeast Europe. The outlook for the region has improved significantly over the past years with multiple major rollouts now planned or already under way. Overall, the CEE and Southeast European region is expected to account for as much as 51 percent of annual EU27+3 smart meter shipments in 2028, up from 30 percent in 2022. Looking only at the growth in annual shipment volumes of first-generation smart meter projects, all the 10 fastest growing markets can be found in CEE and Southeast Europe.

The rapid development of new wireless technologies for IoT communications has a major impact on the smart metering market in Europe. DSOs planning for new smart grid projects and rollouts in the mid-2020s have a wide range of increasingly sophisticated wireless technologies to choose from for their networking platforms. Wireless technologies have a number of advantages compared to PLC technologies which dominated the first wave of smart electricity deployments in Europe. Supported by massive R&D investments in the mobile communications industry in combination with decreasing mobile subscription costs, 3GPP-based LPWA technologies such as NB-IoT and LTE-M are now rapidly gaining traction in the electricity, gas and water utilities space. Several major deployments utilising these technologies are now either under way or about to begin in the Benelux, the Nordics and the Baltics. 3GPP-based LPWA will more than quadruple its smart meter connectivity market share throughout the forecast period. At the moment, various forms of PLC will remain the dominant technology group in terms of installed base although purely wireless communications options are forecasted to account for over 50 percent of shipment volumes during the forecast period – peaking at around 64 percent in 2025–2026.

Adoption of smart metering is also growing fast in the European gas distribution market. At the end of 2022 around 42 percent of the natural gas customers in EU27+3 had been equipped with a smart gas meter. Berg Insight estimates that the number of natural gas customers with a smart gas meter will increase to 77.6 million in 2028, equal to a penetration rate of more than 61 percent. Annual shipments of smart gas meters in the EU27+3 amounted to 5.2 million units in 2022. This represented a decrease of 1.4 million units in comparison to 2021, since the mass-rollout phase in major markets such as Italy and France were largely completed during the year in combination with a slower than anticipated pace of installations in the UK. Nevertheless, France was the most active market in 2022 with yearly shipment volumes of 1.9 million units while the UK and Italy accounted for 1.8 million and 0.8 million units respectively. Throughout the forecast period, annual shipment volumes of smart gas meters will remain stable at around 5–6 million units. Shipment volumes are expected to decrease in Italy until 2025 and then increase until the end of the forecast period while yearly shipments in France will stay at around 0.1 million from 2023 onwards. After multiple delays, the UK market is expected to gradually ramp up smart gas meter installations and reach a peak of 3.4 million units in 2025. A significant volume of smart gas meter installations is also anticipated in additional countries over the coming years, particularly Spain and Belgium, where the former will account for 22 percent of yearly shipment volumes in Europe by 2028.